The Election Time YouTube channel published a detailed simulation showing state-by-state results based on artificial intelligence projections. The video depicts how the electoral map would fill in on election night, with results called in poll-closing order.
The AI Matchup
The host asked ChatGPT to simulate a 2028 race between Vance and Newsom. “I told ChatGPT to show me what will happen on election night in 2028 and its answer was jaw-dropping,” the host said, introducing the analysis.
ChatGPT selected Vance as the Republican nominee, citing his current polling lead and 41% probability of winning the GOP primary according to prediction markets. For Democrats, the model chose Newsom despite early polling showing him trailing former Vice President Kamala Harris by 15 points.
Election Night Unfolds
The simulation begins at 7 p.m. Eastern with early closings in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. Indiana and Kentucky are projected solid Republican, while Georgia leans to Vance by 4 points.
The 8 p.m. wave covers 171 electoral votes across 16 states and produces major shifts. New Hampshire is projected to lean Republican by 0.9 percent, marking the first GOP win there since George W. Bush in 2000. Pennsylvania also leans Republican in the model.
The 9 p.m. closings deliver dramatic flips for Midwest battlegrounds. Minnesota is shown going lean Republican by 1.2 percent-the first Republican victory there since Richard Nixon in 1972. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona are all projected to lean Republican.
Final Results
ChatGPT’s final projection gives Vance 326 electoral votes to Newsom’s 212. The simulation shows Vance flipping Minnesota and New Hampshire while winning traditional Republican strongholds.
The host noted that this outcome would represent the worst Democratic performance since Michael Dukakis lost in 1988. West Coast states including California, Washington, and Oregon remain in Newsom’s column, with California projected Democratic by roughly 30 points.
